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NOAA revises hurricane records; Karen Clark warns catastrophe models can go stale

Moody's says Florida-only homeowners writers are most exposed to Hurricane Isaias, while Gallagher Re says the storm is unlikely to meaningfully influence January 1 renewals because reinsurance capital is abundant.

At a glance

20-second brief
  • A NOAA team led by Christopher Landsea downgraded a 1922 Bermuda hurricane from category 4 to category 3 and upgraded Hurricane Andrew to category 5, changes to the historical record insurers use.

  • Speaking at ILS Bermuda Convergence 2026, Karen Clark, the modelling pioneer, warned that catastrophe models can be stale within two years.

  • Moody's says Florida-only homeowners writers are most exposed to Hurricane Isaias.

A NOAA team led by Christopher Landsea downgraded a 1922 Bermuda hurricane from category 4 to category 3 and upgraded Hurricane Andrew to category 5, changes to the historical record insurers use. Landsea warns that HURDAT2, the database containing that record, is not fully accurate back to the 1850s.

Speaking at ILS Bermuda Convergence 2026, Karen Clark, the modelling pioneer, warned that catastrophe models can be stale within two years. She also said exposure growth, more than climate change, has driven US catastrophe losses higher.

Moody's says Florida-only homeowners writers are most exposed to Hurricane Isaias. Gallagher Re says the storm is unlikely to meaningfully influence January 1 renewals because reinsurance capital is abundant.

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