Moody's says Florida-only homeowners writers are most exposed to Hurricane Isaias

Moody's Ratings says the ten largest Florida-only homeowners writers are the most exposed segment to Hurricane Isaias, writing $8.7 billion in direct premiums in 2025 and posting a five-year average combined ratio of 100%. The rating agency defines Florida-only carriers as those writing at least 70% of their homeowners and commercial property premiums in Florida, and a combined ratio at 100% means five years of underwriting results averaged to break-even before investment income.

Isaias made landfall near Destin, Florida, as a Category 2 storm on October 9, ending a two-year stretch with no hurricane hitting the US mainland, Insurance Business America reported. It brought damaging winds, storm surge and flash flooding to the Florida Panhandle and southern Alabama before moving inland over the weekend.

Citizens Property Insurance Corporation, the state-run insurer of last resort and the largest Florida-only writer, holds the most significant coastline exposure in the group, Moody's said. Its book is less concentrated in the Panhandle specifically, which limits but does not eliminate its exposure to Isaias. The Florida Hurricane Catastrophe Fund entered the 2026 season with approximately $12.1 billion in available cash reserves, according to Moody's.

State Farm, the largest national homeowners insurer in Moody's study, derived 3.6% of its homeowners direct premiums from Florida in 2025. Moody's said State Farm, USAA, Chubb and Allstate are well capitalized to absorb hurricane-related losses given their geographic diversification and reinsurance protection.

Moody's Analytics put preliminary lost output from Isaias at $1 billion to $2 billion, well below the damage caused by Milton in 2024 or Michael in 2018. Lost output is not insured loss. Pre-landfall estimates from Gallagher Re and Marsh Re put insured losses in the low-to-mid single-digit billions, with Marsh Re noting that slight deviations in track and intensity would significantly change loss outcomes.

Gallagher Re said the storm is unlikely to meaningfully influence January 1 reinsurance renewal discussions, pointing to the abundance of available reinsurance capital. That fits the pattern of small regional events leaving ILS capital unmoved, as this publication reported when Gallagher Re sized the September 2 Toronto storm at hundreds of millions of dollars.