NOAA puts 81% probability on very strong El Niño

NOAA puts an 81% probability on a very strong El Niño peaking from October through December, while Moody's says those season counts say little about annual losses.

Moody's maps the split risk as a quiet Atlantic and exposure loading in the Pacific. The probability describes ocean and atmosphere conditions, not a reinsurer's annual loss total.

WTW reports record Bermuda property capacity, with what it calls a Class of 2026 of carriers writing quota share, and says property rate cuts in Bermuda are slowing. The new carriers, WTW says, are competing on coverage and attachment points rather than on price.

If capacity is as abundant as WTW describes and the newest competitors are selling attachment rather than rate, the renewal argument is likely to turn on structure. Cedents can point to a quiet Atlantic; reinsurers can point to Pacific exposure and to September's nor'easter, which Aon and AM Best both place in the hundreds of millions. AM Best attaches Polo to the same range. Both figures are estimates, not results.

The nor'easter hit the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast in late September, so it lands on US books rather than the Pacific exposure Moody's flags, and at the reported estimates it is a modest loss rather than a market-moving one.

Tokio Marine committed $300 million to a credit fund managed by the IFC and BlueOrchard, with Tokio Marine HCC seeding $100 million and Tokio Marine & Nichido Fire adding $200 million at the evergreen fund's first close.

Eiopa published pre-authorisation expectations for private-equity-backed EU insurers covering portfolio transfers, stake acquisitions and mergers, following a February consultation. Fitch raised Beazley Insurance's financial strength rating to AA and lifted Beazley plc and its Dublin unit to AA-, expecting combined specialty volumes of around $15 billion after the Zurich deal.

Talcott Resolution completed the $6.3 billion guaranteed universal life reinsurance transaction with Lincoln, which keeps administering the policies and expects the July-announced deal to lift medium-term annual subsidiary remittances by $30 million to $40 million.

AM Best cut SanlamAllianz Re to B++ while affirming Enact Re at A-, in a half-year when the agency counted US property/casualty downgrades at nearly half the prior-year level and life/health upgrades at twice the number of downgrades.