KCC puts Hurricane Isaias insured losses at $3 billion, top of modeled range

Karen Clark & Company estimated privately insured losses from Hurricane Isaias at $3 billion for wind and storm surge, putting its figure at the top of the range published by the main catastrophe modelers. Verisk put onshore insured losses at $1 billion to $2 billion; Cotality estimated $2 billion to $3 billion for wind and surge.

The estimates differ in what they include. KCC's tally covers residential, commercial and industrial property, automobiles and business interruption, while excluding boats, offshore property and losses paid by the National Flood Insurance Program. Verisk's estimate excludes loss adjustment expenses and tornado damage.

Separate commentary from a reinsurance broker suggests total insured losses will settle at the lower end of a low-to-mid single-digit billion-dollar range. That broader figure includes wind, storm surge, inland flood, tornadoes and expected NFIP losses, and the commentary also reported at least 21 confirmed tornadoes and inland flooding stretching from Alabama to the Carolinas. The broker said current reinsurance capital levels mean the event is unlikely to affect January 1 renewal discussions, matching Gallagher Re's read that Isaias is unlikely to materially influence those renewals.

KCC said Isaias was the ninth named storm of the 2026 Atlantic season but the first to reach hurricane strength, making it the latest first hurricane of a season on record. The storm intensified rapidly twice, from a 40 mph tropical storm to an 80 mph hurricane and then from Category 1 to Category 3 with 120 mph winds, before wind shear weakened it ahead of landfall near Destin at 8:30 p.m. CDT on October 9 with sustained winds of 105 mph.

KCC reported peak storm surge of about 8 feet in the Florida Panhandle, with the worst impacts in coastal towns including Destin, Pensacola Beach and Navarre. In Milton, about 20 miles inland, it reported many downed trees and severe structural damage, with roofs partly or completely torn off homes, apartment buildings, motels and grocery stores. Some mid-rise and high-rise buildings in Pensacola Beach lost siding and cladding, and many gas stations in beach towns were destroyed. The damage pattern suggests a heavy commercial property claims load in the Panhandle.